Dinamika Siklus Bisnis di Asean dan China : Kajian Makroekonomi dengan External Shock

Lestari, Etty Puji (2014) Dinamika Siklus Bisnis di Asean dan China : Kajian Makroekonomi dengan External Shock.

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Abstract

Many pros and cons of the research which states that an increase in the intensity of trade between the two countries gave a positive and negative effect on the business cycles synchronization on these countries. The purpose of this study was to analyze whether the increase in China's trade is conducted by an impact on the business cycles synchronization that occur in the ASEAN countries. Samples to be taken is the 5 ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines and ASEAN partners, namely China. The method used in this study is a regression and VAR (Vector Autoregression). The movement of the business cycle in this study in terms of trade. In terms of trade, adopted the model used by Frankel and Rose, and Grubbel and Lloyd index. The results showed that both the trade variable intensity of intra-industry trade and trade have a negative influence on the alignment of business cycles in ASEAN. This is due to the majority of trade in ASEAN is still dominated by trade among themselves.

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