The Forecasting Analysis of Sea Salt Production Based on Rainfall Variability in The Cirebon District

Sudarmo, Agnes Puspitasari and Bramawanto, Rikha (2023) The Forecasting Analysis of Sea Salt Production Based on Rainfall Variability in The Cirebon District. In: Trends in Science and Technology for Sustainable Living. Universitas Terbuka, Tangerang Selatan, pp. 531-537. ISBN 978-623-153-294-7

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Abstract

Salt production in Indonesia is generally carried out during the dry season, where the amount of yield is influenced by rainfall in the season. As for agricultural purposes, predictions of precipitation from various national/international meteorological and climatological agencies are expected to estimate the amount of sea salt harvested. This study aims to ascertain the possibility of using rain data to predict salt harvest and the urgency of rain monitoring in specific locations, such as salt pans in Cirebon. Prediction of salt production used multiple linear regression on data of sea salt production, rainfall, and rainy days for eleven years in Cirebon. The analysis results show that the precipitation and rainy days influence salt harvest inversely. The number of rainy days is more influential than rainfall on salt production. Data on rainfall and the number of rainy days is only feasible to predict the fluctuations of salt yields in Cirebon. However, they cannot accurately indicate the number of harvests. The predictions in this research still use rainfall reanalysis data. Thus, to determine a more accurate forecast of sea salt harvest, monitoring instruments are needed at specific locations of salt ponds to measure rainfall over a long period. Accurate yield forecasts for optimizing natural sea salt production leave a minimal ecological footprint that supports sustainable living.

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